Analyzing every region of the NCAA Tournament bracket

Contenders: UCONN (1 seed), Iowa State (2 seed), Illinois (3 seed), Auburn (4 seed), San Diego State (5 seed), Drake (10 seed)

Analysis: We haven’t seen a repeat NCAA Tournament Champion since Florida in 2007. Many people, and oddsmakers, believe that changes this year with Dan Hurley’s UCONN Huskies going back-to-back.

It’s hard to see a road where UCONN loses before the Final Four BUT a hypothetical Sweet 16 matchup with Auburn could see the Huskies favored by less than 6 points. This may be my Auburn bias talking (war damn), but I do think that game is going to decide who comes out of this region.

Both teams match up well against Iowa State in a potential Elite 8, while 3-seed Illinois is a known March fraud.

Potential Cinderella: Watch out for Drake. If the Bulldogs can get past Washington State in the first round they’ll match up against an offensively challenged Iowa State team. Drake averages 80.5 points per contest this season behind star Tucker DeVries. If they got hot, the Bulldogs could make a run.

My pick: I’ll be taking my Auburn Tigers. While there is some bias there, I truly believe the winner of that Sweet 16 matchup is going to win this region. If you want to be bold, go with Auburn. UCONN is the safe bet to make it out though.

Bonus Nugget: The winner of the BIG 10 Tournament has failed to reach the second weekend in each of the past three tournaments (Illinois R32), (Iowa R64), and Purdue (R64). Be careful with the Fighting Illini.

Contenders: UNC (1 seed), Arizona (2 seed), Baylor (3 seed), Alabama (4 seed), St. Mary’s (5 seed), Michigan State (9 seed), New Mexico (11 seed)

Analysis: If you’re a fan of betting the over, this region should take up most of your time. The top four seeds in the region can score with anybody in the nation, but their defenses couldn’t stop a paper bag from getting wet in the dessert.

Everybody in the country will be rooting for Caleb Love to lead Arizona to an Elite 8 matchup against his former team, but don’t be so sure this thing stays chalky. Tom Izzo’s Spartans were a preseason top-5 team that could spoil North Carolina’s Tournament, while a Sweet 16 matchup against Alabama could see an over/under of about 205 points.

On the other side, Arizona should cruise into the Sweet 16 before a potential matchup with Baylor or New Mexico. The Lobos are probably more of a threat (they are very similar to the FAU team that took down Arizona early in the year), but Arizona should have no issues coming making it to the Regional Final.

Potential Cinderella: I mentioned it above. Richard Pitino’s team just won the MVC Tournament with the type of dynamic offense that can make a run in March. Here is my analysis of the Lobos from a blog in February. “Head coach Richard Pitino leads a trio of fantastic guards in Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, and Jamal Mashburn Jr. All three average well over 15 points per game. That bodes extremely well in a tournament so reliant on guard play. The lobos don’t defend a lick, but they play physical, high-tempo basketball that could offset their lack of defensive talent. If the guards get hot, this team COULD make a run.”

My pick: I said in my bold prediction TikTok that a double-digit seed is going to find its way into the Final Four. If I stick to that, I’ll be taking New Mexico here. My brain is telling me Arizona, but my heart is screaming Lobos. Stay away from the top half of this region.

Bonus Nugget: The top five seeds in this region failed to make it out of the first weekend in 2023 (UNC missed the tournament). Things could get chaotic so if you want to be bold, you’re Cinderella should probably come from this region. Michigan State, New Mexico, and even 12-seed Grand Canyon, have the talent to make a run if things break the right way.

Contenders: Purdue (1 seed), Tennessee (2 seed), Creighton (3 seed), Kansas (4 seed), Gonzaga (5 seed), South Carolina (6 seed), Utah State (8 seed), TCU (9 seed), McNeese (12 seed)

Analysis: This region is ugly. Four of the top five seeds have their fair share of “March Madness demons”, while the 4-seed Kansas is both literally and figuratively limping into the tournament. I do like Purdue more than my colleagues here at Section 400, but I don’t know if I can trust the Boilermakers to win four games in a row. Rick Barnes and Tennessee are in the same boat, although Dalton Knecht is probably the best player in this region assuming Zach Edey isn’t getting the help of the BIG 10 refs.

I absolutely love Creighton, but the Blue Jays may have issues with first-round opponent Akron. You can write off Kansas (I’ll be picking Samford for the upset), but watch out for the 5-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs. Mark Few has been a lock to make a Sweet 16 since he’s been around, and considering the lack of past success in this region, the Zags could make a run.

Potential Cinderella: It’s McNeese. If you’ve followed us at all, you know how much our guy Matt loves this McNeese Cowboys team. He loves the draw and predicted the Cowboys to go to the Final Four, but I just don’t see it against Gonzaga. For his sake I hope I’m wrong.

My Pick: Give me Creighton. The Blue Jays have gotten closer every year during the Greg McDermott era and have now been given the type of draw that Trey Alexander and company can take advantage of.

Bonus Nugget: Purdue has reached the second weekend in 4 of the last 6 NCAA Tournaments. Last year’s loss was bad, but it was more of an outlier than the norm.

Contenders: Houston (1 seed), Marquette (2 seed), Kentucky (3 seed), Duke (4 seed), Wisconsin (5 seed), Florida (7 seed), *Colorado (10 seed)

*Colorado plays Boise State in the First Four

Analysis: Houston is coming off its worst loss of the season in the BIG 12 title game against Iowa State. I think that’s a good thing for a Cougar team that has been ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll for most of the season.

SEC teams Kentucky and Florida could make something happen in this region, but I just don’t see it against an elite defensive team in Houston. As for the rest of the high seeds, this Duke team is not it, Tyler Kolek’s status makes me wary of Marquette, and while Wisconsin is hot, they could lose to James Madison in the first round.

Potential Cinderella: James Madison led the nation in wins this season and has a road win over Michigan State on its resume. If the Dukes can make it past Wisconsin, they could find themselves in the Sweet 16. Anything can happen from there.

My Pick: Lock in Houston and don’t sweat out any nonsense in the South.

Bonus Nugget: Houston has reached the second weekend in each of the last four NCAA Tournaments. The Cougars have only reached the Elite 8 twice in that span, however.