How Every Single Team In The NCAA Tournament Can Win March Madness

Here we go again…

For those that were here for this blog last year, I’ll be setting up things a little differently this time around to avoid early morning brain fog every from Selection Sunday to the First Four. Last March I somewhat stupidly (actually very stupidly) waited until the bracket came out to write this.

What followed was my path for every seed ranked from No. 16 to No. 5 to win it all. It was fun but it was also unnecessarily taxing and stressful.

For 2026 I’ve decided to make my life easier while also giving you lovely readers the in-depth analysis you deserve before you inevitably take a blow torch to your paper brackets. So, instead of ranking each squad in the NCAA Tournament by seed I’ll be going in a sporadic order, starting with the “locks” for the tournament, followed by the auto bids, and ending with the bubble teams that found their way into the dance.

Each team will be categorized in a tier, followed by a blurb of how they can win and some analysis afterwards.

This blog is starting on February 28 and my hope is to release it on March 16. Hopefully you are reading it that morning. If not I apologize to you and my past self for the failure. I’m sure there are absolutely no typos to follow.

As a reminder for all of you rooting for the little guy, at least one has advanced to the Sweet 16 in each of the past 17 tournaments and 38 of 40 overall. No more than one double digit seed has advanced past the Round of 32 for three consecutive years however (10-seeded Arkansas in 2025, 11-seeded NC State in 2024, 15-seeded Princeton in 2023) , so don’t get too crazy making those brackets. 

If you are looking to turn your bracket from a pumpkin into a boujee wagon, the best chance to find a glass slipper comes on the 11 line.  At least one 11-seed has made the Sweet 16 in eight of the past 11 tournaments, while five (2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, 2018 Loyola Chicago, UCLA in 2021 and NC State in 2024) have reached the National Semi Final this century. None has won a game in the Final Four, but trends are meant to be broken in March.

Just since 2013, we’ve seen the first ever 15-seed to ever reach a Sweet 16 (FGCU), an Elite 8 (St. Peter’s), and two 16 seeds (UMBC, Fairleigh Dickinson) defeat No. 1 seeds. Don’t be afraid to be bold.

Well, let’s get this roundball rockin’

3/17/25 Update: A great man once told me “f it we ball” and that’s what I’ve done. 30ish teams down, 30ish to go. But we are soft launching this early for the people. Check back every few hours for updates. I’m not pushing this out to socials yet so If you found this on google search or just checked in on the website I’d like to say thank you and I love you. 

3/18/25 Update: As CJ Mccollum once wrote on Twitter – I’m trying Jennifer. With Lehigh back in the dance it felt appropriate. Hopefully we get over the 45 school mark by the end of today.

Tier 1: Yes I’m in the building, you just on the list of guest names

These teams know they are at the top, with only heaven, or an NCAA Championship, right above it. Squads, and their fans, in this tier deserve to be legitimately upset if they ultimately fall short of cutting down the final pair of nets.

Duke

They are due

Currently checking in at No. 1 in the NET as of February 28, the Duke Blue Devils have a great chance to get back to the Final Four in consecutive seasons for the fourth time in school history. Duke has entered it’s longest National Championship drought since Coach K won his first in 1991, and while the all-time winningest NCAA Division I men’s basketball coach is no longer on the sideline, this team has a great chance to win it all.

The most glaring issue with Duke comes on the offensive side of the ball, where projected top 3 NBA Draft Pick Cam Boozer carries an exceptionally high 30% usage rate. There’s a reason for that, as the freshman ranks in the top 12 nationally among point scorers (22.1 ppg) and rebounders (10.1 rpg).

Only two other Blue Devils average double figure scoring numbers a game, but second leading scorer Isiah Evans and his 14.5 ppg are microwave that can come alive in major spots. The sophomore has  23-point outings against Texas and Louisville to go along with a 16-point and 14-point contribution in wins over Kansas and Michigan, respectively, giving head coach John Scheyer a solid second option beyond his star NBA Lottery pick.

Add in senior Caleb Foster’s 40% clip from the 3-point line and a 10.7 points per game average from sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II, and the Blue Devils have more than enough offense to pair with a No. 1 ranked defense that holds opponents to just over 60 points per contest.

Duke is not as talented as it was a year ago – It’s hard to be when the team’s two top scorers, Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel have already established themselves as stars in the NBA – but the NCAA Tournament field is not as good either, giving Duke a path to end it’s longest championship drought since 1990.

Arizona

They’ve already proven it

The Wildcats have proven it by winning 28 of their first 30 basketball games this season. 14 of those wins have come in Quadrant 1, with three (Florida, Houston, UConn) coming against squads with a legitimate chance to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Like Duke, Arizona’s leading scorer is a freshman, although Brayden Burries operates in the back court as a guard which historically leads to better results in March. Beyond Burries, Arizona features a deep offensive attack which includes six other Wildcats with at least 9 points per game.

The main pieces of that attack are fellow freshman Koa Pete (13.8 ppg) and senior guard Jaden Bradley (13.9 ppg). The latter is living proof players can enjoy success after leaving Alabama without the assistance of a judge.

Arizona scores over 87 points per game while cleaning up the glass to the tune of a top 10 rebounding number. While two of the top three scorers on the roster are freshman, four of the seven players averaging at least 9 points per game are upper-classmen.

If Campbell Fighting Camels legend Anthony Dell’Orso can find his 3-point stroke in March, this team is going to be a problem.

Michigan

Dusty May has done it with less, much less

That sub header isn’t meant to throw shade to May’s FAU Owls that made a Final Four run in 2023, but even with NBA-level talent like Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, Vladislav Goldin, and Nick Boyd – Boyd has scored at least 20 points 18 times this season at Wisconsin – that FAU team still was not nearly as talented on paper as 2026 Michigan.

The Wolverines boast an elite front court with a top five player in the nation (Yaxel Lendeborg), sophomore double-double machine Morez Johnson Jr. – The Illinois transfer has accomplished the feat against No. 10 Illinois, No. 5 Nebraska, No. 7 Purdue, and four other programs this season – and junior center Aday Mara.

All three big men average at least 11 points and 7 rebounds this season, helping May’s offense average a top 10 mark of 89 ppg this season. The advance metrics love Michigan, with the Wolverines ranked top five in both offensive (5) and defensive (2) efficiency according to Kenpom.

Duke is the only other program in the country to tout that feat, although Arizona (8th offensively, 3rd defensively) may join the party come Selection Sunday.

Tier 2: Welcome To The Party, Pal

Whether they are peaking late, have shown elite flashes inconsistency, or just played an easier schedule than most, these squads may have not received the invite to the Nakatomi Plaza Christmas party, but they are circling the building now.

Florida

The Gators are going streaking (again)

No, I’m not talking about Todd Golden when he meets up with women of a questionably legal age.

Tell me if you’ve heard this story before. Todd Golden’s Florida Gators are the hottest team in college basketball heading into the most important month of the season. After winning 13 of its final 14 games ahead of the NCAA Tournament in 2024, Florida has once again gone streaking in 2025, winning nine consecutive contents by an average of 22 points as of March 3.

This Gators team may not have Walter Clayton Jr. or Alijah Martin, but the Gators have essentially the same front court from last season, which has led to the fourth best defensive efficiency in the country behind only the three teams ranked in Tier 1.

Golden’s offense can go stagnant at times due to starting guards Boogie Fland (21.7%) and Xaivian Lee (27.3%) struggling from beyond the arc, but offensive rebounding and transition buckets have helped Florida chomp it’s way through the second half of the SEC campaign.

Florida just misses out on the top tier because of two things. First, the Gators failed to beat two of the teams in tier one (Duke, Arizona) and a fellow tier two team (UConn) early in the season. Golden’s team has found another gear since those losses, but just because the Accutane cleared the pimples, doesn’t mean the blemishes can be completely ignored.

Second, the Gators can be defeated by game script. The trio of programs in the top tier have proven they can win any type of contest, and I still struggle to see a world where Florida can avoid an upset against a slow-paced, highly-efficient 3-point shooting offensive team.

A Dan Hurley-led UConn may not be waiting in the second round, but a matchup with Iowa or St. Mary’s could lead to problems. Florida can take solace in the fact the only team to hand them a loss in two months (Auburn) probably won’t be in the field.

UConn

Just Keep Swimming….

Speaking of the Dan Hurley-led Huskies, UConn has quietly put together another great season according to the win and loss columns.

The Huskies championship filled yacht floating on the top of the ocean looks flashy, but if you look deeper into the ocean, this Pixar movie may be taking a dark turn.

I’ve compared UConn’s season to the Patriots’ Super Bowl season multiple times on our podcast. Both teams captured the lightning of their former dynasties in a bottle by taking advantage of lack luster schedules and fantastic coaching, which should be celebrated, but underlying problems could be the undoing.

Jarrett Stidham and C.J Stroud aren’t waiting to bail out the Huskies in the NCAA Tournament.

UConn ranks outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, has a Quad 3 loss, and barely escaped Georgetown and Seton Hall twice. Providence also took Dan Hurley’s team to overtime.

The Huskies get credit for winning those games, but the trend of playing down to their competition is impossible to ignore. Add in the inconsistent jump shot of top scorer Solo Ball (30.8% from 3-point range) and the lack of depth on the bench, and this team falls short of the top tier.

It’s hard to count Dan Hurley out of anything though.

Houston

They are a problem…

Puns aside, this Houston team is just as good as the one that lost by a possession in last year’s National Championship, albeit a little more frustrating. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars boast a pair of talented freshman in Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. The former will be an NBA Lottery pick, while the latter is a rebounding machine that loves his jumper a bit too much (hence the frustration).

The two first year stars combine with NCAA Tournament veterans Milos Uzan, Emmanuel Sharp, and Joseph Tugler to create one of the most defensively intimidating programs in the country.

What could put the 2026 version of Houston over the top is Flemings’s ability to put the ball in the basket. The freshman is averaging nearly 17 points per contest, and is one of the few players in Division 1 to post a 40+ point game this season (42 vs. TCU).

The defense ranks sixth in KenPom as of March 5 and it has not given up more than 73 points in a game since January. With that kind of unit and a proven microwave scorer in Flemings, Houston has a chance to finally get over the hump and cut down the nets in April.

Illinois

They put the ball in the basket better than anyone

Illinois has the best offense in the country. It is not particularly close.

Led by future NBA Lottery Pick Keaton Wagler (18.1 ppg), the Fightin’ Illini offensive attack features four players averaging at least 13 points per contest. The fourth best team in the BIG 10 standings ranks first in offensive efficiency in KenPom, and has scored at least 90 points eight times this season.

Wagler shoots 42% from 3-point range, while each of the top four scorers on the Brad Underwood’s high-powered attack connect on at least 79% of their free throws.

The defense is not very good, but we’ve seen programs built on the concept of running the opponent out of the gym succeed in March before.

Tier 3: 60% Of The Time It Works Every Time

The basketball played by these programs works every time, except when it doesn’t. The teams in this tier have what it takes to win a National Championship but have the tendency to play basketball just as frustrating as the conversation about the cologne in ‘Anchorman’.

Gonzaga

Could this finally be the year?

Have you ever gone on a date, thought It went fantastic, but failed to get the other person’s number at the end of the night? That is Mark Few’s Gonzaga dynasty. The Zags have continuously started each date, or season, in fantastic fashion.

People have fallen in love with the Adam Morrisons, Jalen Suggs, Corey Kisperts, and Drew Timmes of the world, only to see them fail to finish in the end.

This year’s team has shown flashes of greatness with victories over Alabama, Kentucky, and UCLA but the talent on the roster, combined with a brutal loss to Portland and a tumultuous conference season without injured star Braden Huff, makes Gonzaga hard to trust.

The team still ranks highly in NET (6) and KenPom (11) – Mark Few has also made the Sweet 16 in nine of the last 10 tournaments – but unless Huff returns by March Madness, Gonzaga is just too hard to trust.

It also doesn’t help that top scorers Graham Ike (34.4%) and Tyon Grant-Foster (24.1%) are virtual non factors from outside the paint. Ike holds his own as a jump shooter, but he’s at his best when attacking the rim.

Alabama

Illinois but Nate Oats Is The Fogo De Chāo to Brad Underwood’s Outback Steakhouse

No disrespect to my beloved Outback (RIP the Outback Bowl) but Alabama head coach Nate Oats has proven he can win a regional tournament while Illinois head coach Brad Underwood has been under the perpetual, and hypothetical, bunsen burner for his inability to do just that.

Like Illinois, Alabama features an elite offense that can carry it to the National Semi-Final. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 89 points in seven of their last nine games entering the Iron Bowl of Basketball, and considering Auburn’s defense can’t stop a wet towel from drying in the desert, that statistic is likely to improve to eight of out 10 to end the regular season.

Guard Labaron Philon Jr. averages more than 20 a game, giving the third ranked offense according to KenPom the kind of guard that can carry a team through March. If Aden Judas Holloway decides to put his big boy pants on and hit big shots in the NCAA Tournament, this team can take advantage of a weaker field and ho-hum it’s way to the Final Four.

Winning a National Championship won’t be easy with a mediocre defense – The Tide allow 84 points per contest – but anything can happen in the final two games of the season.

Purdue

Braden Smith is 30 years old and ready to complete the redemption arc.

Okay he is actually only 22, but the star guard has played and started in 140 games since he made his way West Lafayette four years ago. Smith will finish the season as the Boilermakers all time leader in games played, assists, turnovers, and  minutes played. He also has the chance to enter the top five in points and 3-point field goals – His Teammate Fletcher Loyer is all but certain to finish as the top 3 point scorer in Purdue history – with a long tournament run.

Simply put Smith has been around the block, and that experience is a valuable commodity come March.

Guard Fletcher Loyer (13.3 ppg) and Trey Kaufman-Renn (13.3 ppg) have played along Smith for the entirety of that four-year span, making Purdue one of the oldest and most battle tested squads in March Madness.

The ‘bugaboo’ with the Boilermakers is clear. Matt Painter’s teams have suffered upset losses to No. 16 FDU, No. 15 St. Peter’s, and No. 13 North Texas in the last five years. None of those teams had the experience of this one though.

Smith, Loyer, and Kaufman-Renn aren’t NBA prospects. This is the likely the final dance of dramatic, high-level basketball, the trio will see. They were freshman when the FDU made history against them. Wouldn’t it just be poetic to end their careers by cutting down the final pair of nets?

St. John’s

Pitino’s Rose

The legendary coach’s redemption arc has nearly been completed since Drake rapped about Pitino’s recruiting violations in 2018.

The Red Storm just became the first team ever to win back-to-back BIG East Regular Season & Tournament Championships, and they did it with almost two completely different squads.

This version of St. John’s is still a grimy, defensive-minded, behemoth that takes on the identity of their head coach. BIG East Player Of The Year Zuby Ejofor (16.3 ppg) pairs perfectly with Bryce Hopkins (13.5 ppg) to create one of the scariest, most efficient front courts in the country.

St. John’s struggles in track meets, but the defense hasn’t given up more than 72 points in over a month. Yes the BIG East is not what is once was. And yes, Pitino’s team still struggles to shoot the basketball from 3-point range (33.2%), but this version of The Red Storm has a much clearer identity than the version that failed in March a year ago.

These guys want to punch the other team in the mouth until the opponent bleeds out. That is exactly what they just did to UConn, who suffered it’s first 20+ point loss since 2018.

Michigan State

Fears is, well, scary

That would be sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears. Jr, who leads the team in scoring (15.7 ppg), steals (1.3 spg), and the entire country with 9.2 assists per contest.

Tom Izzo’s Spartans rank 12th in defensive efficiency, but the offense tends to rely on their star way too often. If he has an off night, Michigan State has an off night. But when Fears is fantastic? The Spartans beat the likes of North Carolina, Illinois, Purdue, and Kentucky.

We’ve seen superstar guards like Kemba Walker, Walter Clayton Jr., and Mario Chalmers will their teams to National Championships before, but Kemba had Jeremy Lamb, Clayton Jr. has Alijah Martin and a host of big men, Chalmers had an all-time great Kansas team.

Forwards Jaxon Kohler and Coen Carr are solid secondary options, but Tom Izzo’s rotation lacks another pure, microwave, scorer than can take over a contest if Fears falters.

The Spartans may not need one, but if they do, this team is not winning a National Championship.

Iowa State

That defense moves it’s body like a cyclone

And they frustrate other teams all night long…

Iowa State’s National Championship hopes are back in 2026 after an injury-plagued end of 2025 led to a short-stint in the NCAA Tournament.

All seven of the Cyclone’s losses came in Quadrant 1 this season, while point guard Tamin Lipsey and company came a last second Jaden Bradley shot away from earning a spot in the BIG 12 Championship game.

Lipsey is the engine of the offense and No. 12 ranked scoring defense, but forward Milan Momcilovic (17.1 ppg) is going to be the reason the Cyclones sink or swim in March. The sharpshooter connects on a ridiculous 49.6% of his 3-point attempts and enters the NCAA Tournament having scored at least 16 points in four of six contests.

Senior forward Joshua Jefferson has been even more consistent, putting up at least 16 in six of his last seven games.

The problems for the Cyclones arise beyond those three stars, as no one else on the roster averages more than 8.6 points per contest. Still, if at least two of the three stars play fantastic basketball for six games in a row, ISU is a massive candidate to cut down the final pair of nets in April.

With the No. 12 ranked scoring defense and No. 4 rated defensive efficiency on KenPom, the Cyclones may even have enough to avoid a loss with a bad offensive showing until the second weekend.

Kansas

Bill Self has the best player in the country, well, sometimes

There may not be a team that fits in a tier more perfectly than Kansas fits in this one. At times Bill Self’s squad looks like the best team in the country. At others the Jayhawks seem like a prime candidate to get sent packing in the first weekend.

A massive reason for that is the ongoing strange saga that is the health of projected top 3 NBA draft Darryn Peterson. The freshman averages 20 points per game this season despite playing under 30 minutes in 10 of the 22 contests he played in. He also missed 11 games.

Peterson looked healthy for most of the BIG 12 Tournament and should be a full-go for the ‘Big Dance’, but his absence during the season has created an odd dynamic for the Jayhawks. Kansas has become susceptible to look like an AAU team on the first day of practice way too often this season.

One 8-minute jumbled mess during March Madness could be all an underdog needs to take advantage. Tre White (13.8 ppg), Flory Bidunga (13.2 ppg, 9.2 rbg), and Melvin Council Jr. (12.8 ppg) are a great big three in themselves. When they play good team basketball with their best player things look crispy, but the potential of a crash and burn is something to be wary of.

Tier 4: Fireball

No song or pun to really go along with this category. These teams have cracks but they can do the most important thing on a basketball court very well – Score. Lack of size, talent, defense, or coaching may spell their demise in the tournament, but boy oh boy are the programs in this category fun. Can they stay fun for six games? Well, you be the judge.

Arkansas

Darius Walker Acuff Jr.

Acuff Jr.’s middle name is 99.9% not Walker, but it felt appropriate given the way the superstar carried his team through the SEC Tournament, and the growing possibility he can do the same thing in March Madness.

I wanted to move the Razorbacks into the third tier of these rankings, and considering all but one loss from John Calipari’s team came on the road in Quadrant 1, I’m slightly regretting their placement here.

The Razorbacks do have holes though. The team does not rebound very well, (No. 162 in country), and gives up a ton of points (80.1 oppg). Acuff Jr. and company make up for it with an abundance of offensive firepower, led by the freshman’s 22.9 points per game.

Calipari’s squad has won 16 of its last 19 heading into the Big Dance, but problems could arise in a region that features Nick Boyd’s Wisconsin and the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats.

Still, Arkansas is a top five team in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, good enough on defense, and has the star that could lead it to a National Championship.

Virginia

The Cavaliers can score?

Not only can they score, but they are one of the best in the country at it. This iteration of Virginia is a polar opposite to the versions Tony Bennett coached.

I’m still torn on Bennett’s reign at UVA. On one hand, he won a National Championship that should have never been a National Championship appearance because Ty Jerome clearly double dribbled and Kyle Guy kicked his leg out to create contact on a 3-point attempt that should have resulted in an offensive foul or no call and Auburn should have gone to the Natty where they would have won for Chuma Okeke  but on the other hand he suffered the first ever No. 1 vs. No. 16 seed upset when his team failed to reach 30 points three quarters into the game against UMBC.

Either way, that era of boring basketball is over in Charlottesville. Ryan Odom has made the ACC runner-up fun again by putting forth an offense that scores over 80 points per game behind four double-digit scorers.

Guards Malik Thomas and Sam Lewis both shoot well from beyond the arc, while freshman forward Thijs De Ridder is probably Virginia’s best all-around player (15.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg). Virginia still plays relatively slow (No. 271 tempo according to Kenpom) but it converts very well on the offensive end while sustaining a top 20 defense.

Odom’s team is top 30 in defensive and offensive efficiency, and it nearly just took down No. 1 overall seed Duke in the ACC Championship. This team can play, but will need to raise the offensive ceiling even higher to make a run at the Final Four.

Saint Louis

It’s been a while since someone put on a glass slipper

I have Saint Louis in my Final Four.

The Billikens finished 41st in the NET Rankings this season in an A-10 that the selection committee admitted would have been a one-bid league if not for VCU earning a victory in the conference tournament. Because of that, the advanced metrics don’t love star forward Robbie Avila’s 28-5 team as much as I do.

Here’s why I think the computers are criminally underrating this group.

Saint Louis ranks 12th nationally in points per game (87.2), 34th in rebounds per game (39.9), and 20th in assists per game (18.3). Head coach Josh Schertz’s squad has done that despite not having any single player on the roster average more than 12.7 points and 5.5 rebounds. Only one player (Robbie Avila) averages more than 3 assists per contest.

The Billikens have seven scorers averaging at least 9 points per contest, six players grabbing at least 4 rebounds per game, and seven more dishing at least 1.5 assists.

Saint Louis shoots 40.1% from 3-point range, with five players averaging well over the 40% threshold. The Billikens are deep in the same way 9-seeded FAU was deep when it made a run to the Final Four in 2023.

On that Owls team, five scorers averaged at least 8 points per game (Johnell Davis led the way with 13.8), five grabbed at least 4 boards per contest, and seven had at least 1.4 assists a game (no player averaged more than 2.4).

That FAU team shared the ball because it was deep, and more importantly good enough, to do it. Saint Louis is even better offensively.

Just something to think about…

Vanderbilt

Why not stay dancing on Broadway

Vanderbilt sports have arrived in a big way.

The Commodores just came a few possessions from winning an SEC Tournament. Two years ago, that sentence may have been shot down by ‘The Onion’ for being too unbelievable.

Now? Head coach Mark Byington has his team playing like a National Championship contender. The Commodores have the No. 7 ranked offensive efficiency according to KenPom, while they sit just outside of the top 30 in defensive efficiency.

Tyler Tanner (19.1 ppg), Duke Miles (16.5 ppg) and Tyler Nickel (13.5 ppg) give Vanderbilt one of the best big threes in the nation, while four other players on the roster average at least 8 points per game as well. This team can not only score, but they can score against the best opponents in the country.

105 of UCF, 96 against Saint Mary’s and Alabama, 94 and 91 in a pair of contests agains Florida, 88 vs. SMU, 86 on Tennessee’s head in the SEC Tournament… the list goes on and on.

Tanner and company aren’t afraid of the spotlight, and there is none bigger than the NCAA Tournament.

Oh yeah, they also have three players averaging at least 2.4 steals per game.

Scary…

Wisconsin

The Badgers only beat good teams

That’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but Wisconsin’s ability to beat the best teams in the BIG 10 and inability to coast during contests against bad squads has been remarkable.

Wisconsin has 10 losses this season. Three of those (Indiana, Oregon, USC) have come against teams that did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament while another four (Villanova, TCU, Ohio State, BYU) were against programs seeded below them in the Field of 68.

At the end of the day the only “bad” loss on that list was Oregon, but when you take into consideration head coach Greg Gard’s team has beaten Illinois twice, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, the losses seem a big strange.

Gard’s rotation is led by the ‘Killer Bs’ guard duo of Nick Boyd (20.6 ppg) and John Blackwell (19 ppg). Boyd’s usage rate in particular is among the highest in college basketball, which is not necessarily a bad thing considering the senior has been to a Final Four with Florida Atlantic.

Forward Nolan Winter gives Wisconsin a solid paint presence in the middle to give the Badgers just enough defense, that paired with a No. 11 ranked offense in terms of efficiency, can defeat anybody in the country.

With the right draw, this team can win it all. Matchups against dominant front courts could spell out disaster for the Badgers though

 

Tier 5: Yes, No, Maybe. I Don’t Know. 

I cannot repeat the question. This is probably the point where I’ll start pissing some fanbases off and I’d like to remind you all of the title of this article. Not every team can be in the top tiers but, according to my logic, there is a way for all of them to win it all. Programs in this tier have physically shown me they have what it takes but boy oh boy have they tried to erase that memory.

Tennessee

Can Ja’Kobi Gillespie just not play defense?

Other than Braden Huff’s injury and the Darryn Peterson saga Tennessee’s inability to do much of anything on the offensive end when Ja’Kobi Gillespie goes to the bench is the most annoying part of this college basketball season for me.

The senior journeyman has scored at least 20 points on 13 different occasions this season. Tennessee has won 10 of those games. In all others? The Volunteers are a pedestrian 12-8.

Every time the dude needs a breather or gets into foul trouble the Volunteers forget how to play basketball. A Volunteers’ game essentially goes like this…

Tennessee jumps out to a 7-12-point lead after Gillespie hits a few jump shots and finds star freshman Nate Ament or one of the four other big men on the roster for an open shot.

Gillespie then either needs some oxygen or commits an early second foul, driving Tennessee to put the ball in the hands of Nate Ament to throw up a prayer or drive to force contact every possession.

The star guard then returns with the game suddenly in doubt, and the cycle repeats until he either a) wills Tennessee to victory or b) runs out of gas which forces Ament to play hero.

Scenario b happened in the second round of the SEC Tournament against Auburn, and it worked out, but Auburn is a bad basketball team.

Tennessee may just be better off letting Ja’Kobi sit in the corner every defensive possession to rest and stay out of foul trouble. This team can make a run if he’s on the floor 36 minutes a game.

BYU

AJ Dybantsa

He’s probably going to be the top overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, and for good reason.

The star forward set a BIG 12 Tournament record by scoring 93 points in three games. Some of those points might have been easier to come by with defenders skating across the glass LED floor – what a horrendous idea – but 93 points is 93 points.

Dybantsa is good enough to carry an above average team through six games. The problem is, BYU might be below average beyond their star.

The Cougars lost star guard Richie Saunders to a season-ending knee injury in a February 14 overtime victory over lowly Colorado. That win was their second to last victory before the BIG 12 Tournament. Guard Robert Wright III (18.5 ppg) has done a fantastic job as the ‘Robin’ to A.J’s ‘Batman, but the Cougars depth options have failed to soak up the production of Saunders behind their two stars.

Dybantsa and company head into the NCAA Tournament with three victories over their last seven games. That doesn’t exactly scream “deep run into March”.

TCU

Punch(ing) above its weight class

TCU’s season has made entirely zero sense. The 8-seed Horned Frogs receive a placement in this tier because of just that.

Jamie Dixon’s squad has lost games against Utah, Colorado, NEW ORLEANS!!!, and Notre Dame this season while somehow earning victories over Iowa State, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, and Florida. Oh, and they nearly knocked off Michigan in a four-point loss.

Forward David Punch (14.3 ppg) leads a defensive-minded group featuring four double-digit scorers that, if they get past Ohio State, are going to make life for an injury-riddled Duke team extremely difficult in the Round of 32.

Punch and fellow forward Xavier Edmonds (41.2% 3-point) are a dynamic duo with the size and length to disrupt any front court in the country, and while TCU struggles with guard play, a top 25 defense can keep the Horned Frogs in games when they don’t shoot the ball extremely well.

The 33% team 3-point shooting metric will need to improve in the tournament for a deep run, but it’s possible.

Nebraska

Why not make up for a dreadful program history with one magical run?

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game. This will be only the third time since 2000 the team has qualified for the ‘Big Dance’.

But what happened this season in Lincoln was special. Head coach Fred Hoiberg led his team to a perfect 20-0 start this season, but Nebraska limped into the tournament with a .500 mark of 6-6 over its final 12 games of the season, a long enough sample size to plummet the Cornhuskers to a No. 4 seed in the tournament.

The play to end the season was rocky, but start saying your Hail Mary’s just yet.

Forward Pryce Sandfort (17.8 ppg) is a bonafide star and the supporting cast around him is more than good enough to win at least one game in March Madness. Hoiberg’s team ranks in the top six in overall defensive efficiency on KenPom, and it wasn’t too long ago that defense took down Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in a month span.

It’s also important to note four of the six losses to end the season came against Purdue (2x), Illinois, Iowa, UCLA, and Michigan. All those teams are in the tournament, and all but UCLA are seeded on a top 3 line.

If Sandfort and front court mate Rienk Mast (13.5 ppg) can contribute enough offensively to pair with an elite defense, this team is capable enough to make a deep run.

Texas Tech

No Toppin, no problem?

Texas Tech was a popular sleeper National Championship pick prior to losing its best player.

Tier 5: 2014 UConn. 

This tier only has one team, and it’s the one team that is semi-reminiscent of the Shabaaz Napier and Ryan Boatright led 2014 UConn National Championship squad.

Tier TBA: Heyyyyy Momma Rock me

These mid major programs have been wagons all year long. All of them finished either first or second in their respective conference regular season standings and turned that momentum into a conference tournament championship. These squads are have played great basketball for months. They’ll continue to do so in the NCAA Tournament until the wheel(s) fall off.

High Point

Pace, ball movement, and Jack Gohlke 2.0

In a 2025 tournament that saw almost no chaos, High Point was one of the few upset bids that had a chance. The Panthers lost a heartbreaker in the Round of 64 to Purdue but are back for more a year later after winning 18 of 19 conference games in the Big South.

High Point won 30 of it’s 34 contests this season despite turning over nearly the entire roster by doing exactly the same thing it did in 2025. Flynn Clayman’s team plays fast (51 in tempo according to KenPom), makes shots (90 ppg), creates chaos on the defensive end (10.9 steals per game), and shoots a ton of threes.

Most of the time those are indicators of a small team capable of sleighing Goliath. It also helps the Panthers have sixth year senior Chase Johnston. The former Stetson Hatter and FGCU Eagle has 196 points this season. 192 of those have come from beyond the 3-point line.

In 32 games, Johnston has shot the ball 140 total times. Four of those attempts have been free throws, four of them have come from inside the arc, and 132 have come from 3-point range. He’s connected on 48.5% of his long balls, giving the Panthers a hilariously lethal sharpshooting 8th man off the bench.

Just two year’s ago, Oakland’s Jack Gohlke became a star in the Golden Grizzlies upset of Kentucky. His numbers entering that contest? 372 field goal attempts in 36 contents. 364 game from beyond the 3-point stripe. Gohlke went on to make 12 shots in the win over Kentucky. 10 came from 3-point range, two came from the free throw line.

LIU

The vibes are simply incredible

You’ve probably seen the ‘Fins Up’ videos by now. Fans of LIU – The school dropped the ‘Brooklyn’ from it’s name when the campus merged with the ‘Post’ campus in 2018 – have one of the best rituals in all of college basketball when a member of the Sharks heads to the free throw line.

Instead of simply putting up their hands or spelling out school acronyms with their raised arms, fans create a fin with their raised arms. It looks a lot cooler than it reads, I promise.

On the court, this team is pretty fun too. LIU went 15-3 in the NEC throughout the regular season, then won it’s only two games of importance in the NEC Tournament to earn a bid to the dance. The Sharks play Mercyhurst, who is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to transition rules, in the NEC Championship.

Guards Jamal Fuller (16.6 ppg), Malachi Davis (14.1 ppg) and Greg Gordon (13.8 ppg) create a dynamic big three that has led LIU to wins over James Madison, Lehigh and La Salle this season. The Sharks also had near losses at Mississippi State and Winthrop.

It’s also worth noting the last 16 seed to earn a win over a No. 1 in March, FDU, plays in the NEC.

Troy

Chemistry and chaos

The Trojans have won with those two attributes all season long. Troy struck down San Diego State, Furman and Kent State on the road this season. It nearly did the same to USC in Los Angeles before Jordan Marsh won the game with a buzzer beater in the third overtime.

This team is deep (four starters average at least 13 points per contest) and defensive minded (four players average at least a steal per game). Troy has the kind of star that can take over a March Madness game in forward Thomas Dowd (14 points, 10 rebounds per game) and a high usage machine in his front court mate Victor Valdes (14 points, 4.5 assists per game).

The fiery duo of Cooper and Cobi Campell in the back court shoots a combined 40% from three point range, while the brothers each swipe more than one steal per game.

Troy doesn’t excel at really anything, but the Trojans do most things fairly well. Add in an adjusted tempo that ranks near the bottom of Division 1, and the little weaknesses the Sun Belt champions have get minimized by the lack of possessions their opponents hold.

It also helps that every member of the team that scores in double figures has played alongside each other for three years, and extremely rare occurance in the current era of college basketball.

North Dakota State

2026 could be the year of the Bison

North Dakota State’s football program released it’s first ever FBS schedule earlier this week, as the program will move over to the Mountain West after dominating the FCS level for over a decade. The basketball team plays in the Summit League, where it won both the regular season and tournament championships.

Now I’ll be completely honest, other than a Max Abmas-led Sweet 16 run by Oral Roberts in 2021, the Summit League has been nothing short of horrific in the NCAA Tournament.

The conference is 12-40 all time in the tournament, and has won a non-First Four game in just one of the last 12 years.

The Bison did go on to road early in the season to defeat two solid mid major programs in Drake and Montana which gives some optimism to this squads chances.

Guards Damari Wheeler-Thomas and Trevian Carson both average more than 12 points per game, but a lack of size makes a matchup with a No. 1 or No. 2 seed an even more impossible hill to climb.

South Florida

The Bulls show you the horns

This South Florida team plays angry.

The regular season and tournament champions of the American conference have a shiny victory over Utah State and narrow loss to Alabama on the resume heading into March Madness, and with the amount of talent on the roster, it’s not hard to see how.

South Florida averages just under 88 points per contest thanks to a five man rotation with every piece averaging over 11 points per game. The Bulls aren’t deep, but boy is the top half of the roster fun.

Guard Wes Enis leads the way with just under 17 points per game and comes into the NCAA Tournament with at least 19 per night in six of his last seven.

Senior forward Izaiyah Nelson averages a 15-point, 10-rebound double-double and is sure to cause problems in the Round of 64 for a Louisville team that struggles to protect the rim.

Guard Joseph Pinion is the team’s best outside shooter (37%), and connected on 9 of his 24 attempts from beyond the arc in the first two games of the conference tournament before foul trouble held him without a three ball in the AAC Championship game.

The Bulls are a top 40 defensive unit that can generate instant offense on the other end of the floor. In a region that features coaches with a combined 16 Final Four appearances (Izzo, Pitino, Cronin, Hurley, Self, Scheyer) this squad can bust some brackets very quickly.

Utah State

Using Stars Unbelievably

Utah State is the lone representative from the Mountain West in the field after the Aggies hogged both the regular season and conference championships for themselves.

This will be the the eight time in ten years (including COVID cancellation) that Utah State has gone dancing. In every year but one (2024) the Aggies have been sent packing after the opening round.

In a way, the program’s success in the regular season has hindered its success in the postseason. Head coach Jerrod Calhoun is the seventh coach Utah State has had since 2018. Will he finally be the guy to lead this mini Mountain West dynasty to the second weekend?

Maybe. If he does, it will be on the blood, sweat, and tears of two extraordinary scorers. Guard MJ Collins Jr. and forward Mason Falslev combine to score 35 of Utah State’s 82.5 points per game. Both stars shoot well above 35% from 3-point range, with the latter connecting on more than 40% of his tries.

The duo combined for half (36) of Utah State’s 73 points in the Mountain West Championship game and will likely need to push that number even higher if they hope to make an NCAA Tournament run.

Advanced metrics love the Aggies (No. 27 in NET, 30 in KenPom), and if they can get the “first weekend failure” monkey of their back, we’ve seen two stars fuel a Final Four run before.

Akron

What a wonderful day

Zippidy Zoo da, zippidy ay. My oh my Akron is back in the tournament for the third straight season under head coach John Groce. The Zips have been a trendy upset pick the last two years and the exact same thing is happening this time around, and for good reason.

While Miami (OH) was stealing the spotlight in the MAC for the entire months of February and March, Akron was quietly “ho-humming” its way to 19 straight conference wins in a row. The Zips only loss in conference came on the road against the aforementioned RedHawks in a game where they were Miami (OH) shot 30 free throws compared to Akron’s 10.

Other than that, John Groce’s team lost just four other times. Three of those (Purdue, Yale, Troy) happened on the road against tournament teams.

This squad is good. Like, really good. Guard Tavari Johnson (20.1 ppg, 5 apg) would be an impact rotation player on any top program in the country. 6-foot-9 forward Amani Lyles (14.6 ppg, 8 rbg) joined Johnson on the All-MAC First team and just dominated the MAC Tournament with two 16-rebound double-doubles.

All-MAC Sixth Man Of The Year Shammah Scott (42% 3-point) sent Akron dancing after connecting on his team leading 81st 3-point field goal at the buzzer of the MAC Championship game, while brothers Evan Mahaffey (Mac All-Defensive Team) and Eric Mahaffey (All-Mac Freshman Team) are spark plugs on both ends of the floor.

The Zips play fast (No. 23 tempo), score fast (No. 9 scoring offense) and kill teams fast – They’ve won 24 games by double digits this year – creating a perfect recipe for a Cinderella.

 

Tier TBA: Dreams

Thunder only happens when it’s raining. These players have loved playin’ lately, but for most of the season, the opposite was mostly true. These are the programs that rose from the ashes of mediocrity to secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Some entered the conference tournament seeded in the bottom half of their league, while others overcame and upset dominant regular season champ to shock the world. Why can’t they do it six more times?

Northern Iowa

The tortoise beats the hare 

Northern Iowa plays at the 364th fasted tempo in Division 1 basketball. There are 365 Division 1 basketball teams.

The Panthers are slow, methodical, and for most of the season, mediocre. Northern Iowa finished just 11-9 in the Missouri Valley, but did earn wins over UC Irvine, Furman, and South Dakota State in the early season. Two of those teams might go dancing, showing UNI has what it takes to win some important games in March.

Guard Trey Campbell was fantastic in ‘Arch Madness’, scoring 23 points twice in four days to help his team become the first program to ever win four games in four days at the Missouri Valley Tournament. The senior’s usage rate is high, and although the Panthers get significant contributions from forwards Will Hornseth and Leon Bond III, their offense goes as Campbell goes.

If the Cedar Falls native sees his shots hit nylon, the Panthers are a sneaky squad that can beat almost anybody with their No. 1 ranked scoring defense (61.3 oppg).

Furman

Familiarity and health 

Back in 2023, Furman made its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980. The Paladins proceeded to give us one of the iconic moments in March Madness lore when guard JP Pegues stole a Virginia in bound pass and hoisted a game winning 3-point shot to stun the Cavaliers.

Three years later, head coach Bob Richey is back with a completely new roster with much of the same build. For starters, the leading scorer on the 2022-2023 team was a guard, Mike Bothwell, who averaged 17.7 points per game. This year’s leading scorer for Furman is also a guard, Alex Wilkins, who also averages 17.7 points per game.

That version of Furman did shoot better as a team in virtually every category, but it also needed to because of its lack of size. The 2026 team struggled from the free throw and 3-point line for much of the season (a big reason why it finished sixth in the SoCon) but it does have the size needed to defeat high-level competition.

Forward Chales Johnston averages 9 points and 9 rebounds a game while providing nearly a block and a steal per contest as well. 6-foot-11 stretch big Cooper Bowser has bullied his way to a 14 point, 6 rebound average as well.

The Paladins are talented and healthy. Bob Richey’s team is playing its best basketball at the perfect time. Who’s to say they can’t continue to do so in the NCAA Tournament?