NBA In-Season Tournament; Clinching scenarios, preview, predictions

The final day of the NBA In-Season Tournament Group Stage is finally here after a month of on-and-off action including a stoppage for election day, thanksgiving, and many regular season games in between (figure it out, Adam).

Most of the knockout field is set as we head into the final day of action, but plenty of teams are still alive in the race to get a game within Vegas.

Check out how your favorite team can make the knockout stages below.

East; Teams in the Knockout Stage or eliminated

Only one team in the east is guaranteed a spot in the Knockout Stage. Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers went a perfect 4-0 in Group Play, picking up wins over the 76ers, Hawks, Cavaliers, and Pistons on their way to a “East Group A” crown.

As for the teams with no hope, the aforementioned Pistons along with the Raptors, Wizards, and Bulls have been eliminated.

East Clinching Scenarios

You may want to drink a coffee before you digest all of this.

ATLANTA can clinch a wildcard birth with a win + NYK loss + MIA loss + BOS loss + BKN loss AND at least a 19-point win in a game where they are 4-point underdogs. Good luck.

BOSTON’S best chance to get to the knockout stage would be winning Group C. They can do that with a 23-point win over the Chicago Bulls. They would also need the Nets to lose or win by less than 13.

The Celtics could get in as a wild card, but it’s not likely. They’ll need a win 20-point win + BKN loss + NYK loss + MIA loss + CLE loss.

BROOKLYN has a much more straightforward path to winning the group. They’ll win “East Group C” with a 15-point win and a Celtics LOSS or a 15-point win and a Celtics win by less than 23.

BROOKLYN can claim a wild card spot with a victory + CLE loss + NYK loss + MIA loss OR a resounding win, giving them the tiebreaker over the aforementioned three teams.

CHARLOTTE is all but cooked. They need chaos to ensue where every team ends up at 2-2. They’ll also need to beat the Knicks by about 40 points in a game where they are 12-point underdogs.

CLEVELAND has an easier bath than Charlotte, but they still need a lot of help. The Cavs need to win + NYK loss + MIA loss + BOS loss + BKN loss OR they need to beat the Hawks by a decent margin and hope the Knicks, Heat, and Nets lose or win by a slim margin.

MIAMI needs to beat the Bucks by 15 points AND have the Knicks lose to win “East Group B”. They could also technically get in with a 20-point win and a Knicks win by less than 8.

MIAMI can also get in as a wild card, but they’ll need a lot of help. The Heat need to win and have the Knicks lose or outscore the Knicks by 8 if they win. They’ll then need to hope the Celtics don’t win by more than 23, or they’ll need to make up even more points because Orlando would drop to a wild card team with a +22 point differential. Things could also get chaotic with a Cavs resounding victory in that scenario, but assuming the Heat win by a large margin we won’t get into that.

MILWAUKEE clinches Group B with a win. They could also get in with a loss, assuming no major chaos happens.

NEW YORK can clinch Group B with a win and a Bucks loss, assuming the Knicks outscore the Bucks by a 21-point differential. The scenario is certainly possible, as the Knicks are favored by 12 points over the Hornets and the Bucks have a road game in Miami.

The Knicks path to a wildcard is the same as Miami’s, except they have a 7-point lead in the tiebreaker.

ORLANDO is pretty safe to get in the knockout rounds in some fashion. Boston or Brooklyn can knock them off the top of the group with huge wins, but most likely the Magic will win the group. Even if they don’t their +22 differential should safely have them in the tournament.

PHILADELPHIA needs to hope they get a CLE loss + a large NYK loss + a large MIA loss + BOS loss + BKN loss. The Sixers are pretty much cooked

East; Knockout Stage Prediction

Even with all the craziness outlined above, the East is fairly straight forward.

The Pacers are in and I can say with 90% certainty the Bucks and Magic will be joining them. That leaves the Knicks, the Celtics, the Nets, and the Cavs as the teams with decent paths to claim the final spot.

New York is getting in. The Knicks have a +18 point differential and play host to the Hornets as 12-point favorites.

The Celtics could mess around and win by 20+, but even then the Knicks would just have to win by more than 4 to knock off the Magic.

The four teams out of the East will be the Pacers, Bucks, Knicks, and Magic.

West; Teams in the Knockout Stage or eliminated

Like the East, only one team in the West has qualified for the next round so far. The Los Angeles Lakers have clinched “West Group A” with a perfect 4-0 record.

Unlike the East, the West already has plenty of eliminations. The Jazz, Trail Blazers, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Mavericks, Clippers, Thunder, and Spurs have no chance of getting to Vegas.

West Clinching Scenarios

The West (thank goodness) is much more clear in terms of scenarios than the East.

We’ll most likely see the Kings, Pelicans, and Suns come out of the conference, but here are the chaos scenarios anyway.

GOLDEN STATE can win “West Group C” with a 13-point victory over the Kings tonight and a Timberwolves loss or victory by less than 28 points. The Warriors cannot claim a wild card spot because of the Suns high point differential.

HOUSTON clinches Group B if they can beat the Mavericks on the road, as they’ll have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Pelicans.

MINNESOTA needs to win by a lot and get some help to get in. It’s not happening.

NEW ORLEANS needs the Rockets to lose to win Group B. The Pelicans cannot claim a wildcard.

PHOENIX all but has the wild card spot locked up. The only team that can take it from them is the Timberwolves, who would need to win by 38 points.

SACRAMENTO clinches Group C with a win or a loss by less than 12 points tonight.

West; Knockout Stage Prediction

Like I said earlier, the West is pretty straight forward.

The Lakers, Suns, Pelicans, and Kings should be coming out of this conference. The Rockets could mess around and make it, but that’s the only craziness that might happen.