I’ve teased this behemoth of a blog entry throughout the best month on the sports calendar. It’s finally time to put fingers to keyboard and knock this thing out. The greatest drama in all of television unfolds before our eyes later this week.
While most of the bracket discourse over the next 48 hours will center around the top eight or so seeds, the talk will soon shift towards the lovable, underdog, unheard of programs that earn the affection from the public. Especially considering all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Elite Eight just once in the past 14 tournaments.
Google searches for the locations of campuses like Fairleigh Dickinson, Florida Gulf Coast, St. Peter’s, and Oral Roberts will flood employee laptops. Tweets with photos of brackets and lighter fluid will go viral, while one or two double-digit seeds find their way into the ‘Sweet 16’ – At least one has advanced to the Sweet 16 in each of the past 16 tournaments and 37 of 39 overall.
An 11-seed is all but certain to survive and advance, and possibly line dance its way to Texas. At least one 11-seed has made the Sweet 16 in eight of the past 10 tournaments, while five (2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, 2018 Loyola Chicago, UCLA in 2021 and NC State last season) have reached the National Semi Final this century.
But in the end, a dominant, highly-ranked team is likely to cut down the nets. Thirteen of the past 17 champions have come from the 1-seed line, while 21 of 22 national champions finished top 25 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom rankings.
All four top-seeded programs meet that criteria this season, with Duke, Houston, and Florida all falling within the top 10 in both (Auburn is No. 12 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom).
That shouldn’t stop anyone from dreaming. Whether you are an ‘American’ alumni hoping to overthrow a tyrannical committee by spilling some tea, a Omaha fan looking to summit the mountain, or a Louisville Cardinal putting “big truzz” in your squad, every program in this tournament has a path to cut down the nets.
Not all paths are created equal, but here is how each team in the NCAA Tournament, outside of the top 16, can cut down the nets in April. We’ll start with the highest seeds and work our way down.
Here. We. Go.
16 Seeds
American
Dynamic Duo. Remember that graphic of Lebron James and Kyrie Iriving after Game 6 of the 2016 NBA Finals? Senior stars Matt Rogers and Elijah Stephens will need to recreate that seven times. The duo combined for 32 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 steals in the Eagles Patriot League-winning victory over Navy.
Mount Saint Marys
Luck. No really, Mount Saint Marys ranks second in the country in KenPom’s “luck” metric. Its First Four opponent, American, ranks fourth. Leading scorer Dola Adebayo and company knocked off Miami back in December. Hurricanes’ head coach Jim Larrañaga retired less than a week later.
Alabama State
CJ Hines. The senior from Atlanta, GA leads the Hornets in scoring this season with 14.4 points per game. He mustered at least 15 a game throughout the SWAC Tournament, and will play in his hometown if he can lead Alabama State to a Sweet 16.
Saint Francis
They’ve been here before. Three times this season in fact. The Red Flash lost to NCAA Tournament teams Maryland, Robert Morris, and Clemson in the non-conference schedule. That stretch also included a season opening loss to Dayton, opening up the possibility the NEC Champion’s season bookends with losses in the same gym.
Norfolk State
Brian scores ‘M(o)ore’. That would be guard Brian Moore Jr., who comes into March Madness averaging 18.4 points per contest. The senior scored a combined 79 points in four games against NCAA Tournament competition this season, including 33 in a win over High Point.
SIUE
Maybe Houston gets confused? It will be a battle of the Cougars in the first round matchup between SIUE and Houston. The No. 16 seed was one of only four teams to lose at the hands of Doug Gottlieb’s Green Bay team this season.
15 Seeds
Omaha
Size and Shooting. It’s very rare to see a mid-major posses a big-man with the size and skill combination of Marquel Sutton. The senior is averaging 19.1 points and 8.0 rebounds per game this season, while the supporting cast, mainly guards JJ White and Tony Osburn, is shooting over 37% from beyond the arc.
Bryant
Earl Timberlake. The fifth year senior is averaging 15.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists this season. If he can continue that production in the tournament, America may not be saying ‘Bye Bye Bye’ to Bryant until the second weekend.
Robert Morris
The Colonials are hot. Robert Morris was sitting at 6-5 early this season before wins over CAA Regular Season Champion Towson and NEC Tournament Champion Saint Francis turned the season around. Since that 6-5 start, guard Kam Woods and company have won 20 games in 23 tries, including 16 of their last 17 entering the tournament. Woods, along with Malaga, Spain native Alvaro Folgueiras, combine to average nearly 30 points per contest.
Wofford
Granny-style pace, and granny-style free throws. The Wofford Terriers won the SoCon Tournament despite entering as the 5-seed. Center Kyler Filewich shoots his free throws granny-style, and the Terries follow suit, playing at the No. 333 ranked pace in the country according to KenPom. This team limits possesions, and if guards Corey Tripp, Dillon Bailey, and Justin Bailey make 3-point shots, an upset or two could happen. The latter Bailey has made 45.1% of his long balls this season.
14 Seeds
Montana
Pace, scoring, and Money Williams. Montana’s leading scorer is named Money Williams. If that doesn’t get you excited enough, the Grizzlies have a top 100 ranked KenPom offense that averages 76.9 points per game. Teams from Montana’s conference notoriously can’t defend, and Montana is no different, but if they catch a higher ranked seed on a bad shooting night the (big) sky is the limit for the Grizzlies.
Lipscomb
Balance. Lipscomb may be the most complete mid-major team in this tournament. The squad from Music City features a melodic attack led by forward Jacob Ognacevic and his 20.1 points per game. Guards Joe Anderson (40.5%), Will Pruitt (35%), and Gyasi Powell (37.3%) all shoot the 3-ball well, making Lipscomb somewhat of the mid-major version of No. 1 overall seed Auburn, who features big man Johni Broome along with sharpshooters Miles Kelly, Denver Jones, Tahaad Pettiford, and Chad Baker-Mazara.
UNC Wilmington
I want no part of them. That could be a good thing, as the upsets that happen are often the ones you least expect. UNCW finished second behind Towson in a so-so CAA this season. Senior Donovan Newby is fun though.
Troy
Controlled chaos. Troy’s defense is legitimately terrifying. The Trojans have allowed just one opponent to score over 70 points since the calendar flipped to February. That was Arkansas State, who Troy beat 94-81 to claim the Sun Belt Championship. Tayton Conerway accounts for 2.9 steals per game, the third most in the country, while his backcourt mate Myles Rigsby swipes 1.5 per contest.
13 Seeds
High Point
Uncontrolled chaos. High Point trailed Winthrop 48-33 five minutes into the second half of the Big South Championship. Kezza Giffa (14.8 ppg) and the Panthers took a 54-52 lead just six minutes later. The champion of the Big South can score in bunches, and do it fast. The Panthers are also an elite free throw shooting team (76.3%).
Akron
Zip up and down the floor. The Akron Zips play fast. Like really, really, fast. The champions of the MAC, Akron is making its third trip to the dance in four years due to an offense that ranks 16th in tempo and 66th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Guards Nate Johnson (14 ppg) and Tavari Johnson (14 ppg) lead a team that shoots well from beyond the arc (36.4%) and from the free throw line (75.3%), posing an issue for any high seed that struggles with depth and defense.
Yale
James Jones is the best coach you’ve never heard of. The winningest coach in Yale history has led the Bulldogs to upsets over Baylor (2016) and Auburn (2024) in the NCAA Tournament. Jones lost stars Matt Knowling (USC) and Danny Wolf (Michigan) to the transfer portal this season, and still proceeded to lead his team to an Ivy League-best 22-7 record. Guards John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng led the Bulldogs to a non-conference victory over Akron, as well as an 8-point defeat at Purdue.
Grand Canyon
A better dynamic duo. Remember everything I said about Matt Rogers and Elijah Stephens at the top of this article? The same can be said for Grand Canyon, except the Lopes feature a much more talented pair of players. Guard Tyon Grant-Foster (14.5 points per game) and forward JaKobe Coles (14.8 points per game) may both find work in the NBA soon, but their lack of perimeter shooting prowess (combined 26% from deep) is concerning.
12 Seeds
Liberty
Stick to Virginia roots. Tony Bennett’s reign of making boring basketball successful at Virginia may be over, but do I dare say the Liberty Flames are carrying it on? Liberty may have perfected the formula, as the Flames have paired a No. 48 ranked defense with a top 100 offense which has scored over 79 points in five straight contests thanks to a 39% clip from 3-point range.
UC San Diego
Defense and free throws. UC San Diego has not lost a basketball game since January 18. One of the main reasons for that is leading scorer, assist man, and rebounder Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. The New Zealander led the country with 222 free throws made this season, making him somewhat of the James Harden of college basketball.
Colorado State
Nique Clifford. The senior is averaging 19 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists this season for the Rams, who have won 11 straight games. Clifford has accumulated at least 24 points in five of his last six games, making a CSU squad that boasts a top 50 offense and defense according to KenPom extremely dangerous.
McNeese
Matt can’t be wrong again, can he? For those that have been following along in the nosebleeds since last March, our guy Matt infamously predicted a McNeese run to the Final Four a season ago. Will Wade’s Cowboys were subsequently bounced by Gonzaga in the first round. This team is probably worse than last season’s squad, but a trio of single-digit losses against Alabama, Liberty and Mississippi State and a win over North Texas prove Sincere Parker and company are more battle tested than their 2024 counterparts.
11 Seeds
North Carolina
Because of course it will. As I said on our Selection Sunday Live Show, North Carolina does not deserve to be here. Had the Tar Heels beaten Duke in Chapel Hill on the last game of the season, or in the ACC Semi, they may have had a case. Instead, North Carolina enters the NCAA Tournament with one victory in Quadrant 1. RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, and Seth Trimble make up what may be the talented backcourt in the country. Hubert Davis’s team could realistically cut down the nets, but that doesn’t mean they deserve a spot in the field.
San Diego State
Nick Boyd supplements a top 15 defense. San Diego State proved the Mountain West haters wrong when it went on a run to the National Championship just two years ago. The Aztecs beat 9-seed FAU at the buzzer to reach that final. The Owls’ second leading scorer that night? Current Aztec Nick Boyd. The senior scored 12 points in that Final Four game, and now comes into this First Four’ leading San Diego State with 13.4 points per game.
Texas
Tre Johnson does his best Kemba Walker impression. When Connecticut won the National Championship in 2011, the Huskies came into March riddled with inconsistent results, both from individual players and in the win loss column. Then Kemba Walker happened. “Cardiac Kemba” went on a tear once the calendar flipped to the third month of the year, leading a 10-loss UConn team to 11 straight victories. He was the leading scorer in all 11 games. Walker averaged 23 points per game to lead the best conference in the country in scoring that season. Tre Johnson averaged over 20 points per game himself, as a freshman, for a middling team in the best conference in college basketball this season.
Xavier
Ryan Conwell and Zach Freemantle go nuclear. 2023 UConn had Adama Sanogo (17.2 ppg) and Jordan Hawkins (16.2 ppg). 2022 Kansas had Ochai Agbaji (18.8 ppg) and Jalen Wilson (11.4 ppg). 2019 Virginia had Kyle Guy (15.4 ppg) and De’Andre Hunter (15.2 ppg). The formula to win an NCAA Tournament Championship, at least recently, has been possesing two high volume scoring options, one in the back court and one in the front court. Xavier has just that this season with guard Ryan Conwell (16.8 ppg) and forward Zach Freemantle (17.3 ppg).
VCU
3-point shooting. When Shaka Smart took the VCU Rams from the First Four to the Final Four over a decade ago, the defensive minded Rams came into the tournament making just over 8 3-point shots per game. The Rams went on to make over 12 per contest in the tournament. This team is much better offensively, but is still heavily reliant on a defense that ranks No. 23 according to KenPom. The champions of the A-10 shoot just 33% from beyond the arc, but that number is inflated by the wizardry of leading scorer Max Shulga.
Drake
A winning culture. Drake came into this season winners of back-to-back MVC Tournaments. It’s coach and best player left for West Virginia. The University then hired Division II head coach Ben McCollum, who brought nine players from his championship winning Northwest Missouri State program to Iowa. Led by star guard Ben Stritz, the Bulldogs won 30 games this season, the biggest being a neutral site victory over Vanderbilt.
10 Seeds
Utah State
Methodical offense. Utah State has victories over St. Mary’s, Iowa, North Texas, Montana, and San Diego State this season. The Aggies have done it with sensational scoring. All four leading scorers shoot at least 38% from beyond the arc, allowing a team that plays slow to average just over 80 points per contest. Costa Rica native Ian Martinez leads the team in scoring in his fifth season of college basketball.
Arkansas
John Calipari is due. The legendary head coach has not made it to the second weekend since 2019. While this Arkansas team has underachieved all season, the Razorbacks have the talent to end the streak. Arkansas finished the regular season with five victories in six tries. It nearly beat Auburn and Texas A&M before that streak as well. Leading scorer Adou Thiero is not likely to play in the first round however.
Vanderbilt
The Commodores have played spoiler all season. Superstar guard Jason Edwards and the Commodores have victories over Tennessee, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Texas this season. The issue is they also lost to Drake, who may just be a worse version of Vanderbilt’s first round opponent, St. Mary’s. Vanderbilt lacks scoring depth beyond Edwards, but the guard has carried his squad to upsets before.
New Mexico
Donovan Dent is the best guard the Mountain West has ever seen. The Mountain West Player of the Year was fantastic last season. He was absolutely unbelievable in 2024-2025. Dent averaged 20.6 points, 6.4 assists, and 1.5 steals to lead the Lobos to a Mountain West Regular Season Championship. The junior could very well do the same in the NCAA Tournament. For those in love with storylines, a New Mexico vs. St. John’s Final Four matchup would feature New Mexico coach Richard Pitino coaching against his father, Rick Pitino.
9 Seeds
Creighton
Age and experience. Creighton has four players averaging at least 11 points per game. All four of them have played at least three seasons of college basketball. The Blue Jays’ top two, center Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4 ppg) and guard Steven Ashworth (16.3 ppg), have played five each. This version of Creighton is not as talented as the last two, but Kalkbrenner and Ashworth create a scoring duo most other teams don’t have.
Baylor
Electricity. That’s the adjective to freshman guard VJ Edgecombe, who is certain to awe fans with his NBA Lottery pick athleticism. It’s hard to remember a 9-seed as talented as Baylor, who also features center Norchad Omier and former Duke guard Jeremy Roach. While the Bears are electric, they are prone to giving up runs, which could end an NCAA Tournament run before it has a chance to begin.
Georgia
Asa Newell. One storyline that will quickly surface in this tournament is the amount of sensational freshman taking the floor. Cooper Flagg is the obvious headline, but Georgia’s Asa Newell isn’t so bad himself. The first-year forward averaged 15.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game in the SEC this season to help the Bulldogs gain an at-large tournament bid. When guards Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain connect from deep, Georgia can beat anyone. Just ask St. John’s or Florida.
Oklahoma
Todo, they aren’t in the SEC anymore. Oklahoma started it’s season 13-0 in the non-conference. That schedule was no cakewalk either. The Sooners knocked off Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan during that stretch, then flamed out with four straight losses to open conference play. Porter Moser’s team would later drop five straight, leading to questions whether a team that once looked like a lock for the NCAA Tournament would even get a bid. Guards Jeremiah Fears and Jalon Moore combine to average 33 points per game this season, and the supporting cast is talented enough for the Sooners to re-find their non-conference stride.
8 Seeds
UConn
Dan Hurley. The head coach has led the Huskies to back-to-back titles, but it’s hard to overlook the problems with this iteration of the Huskies. This went from one of the deepest teams of all time last year, to one that is heavily reliant on the trio of Solo Ball, Liam McNeeley, and Alex Karaban. That being said, not many trios in the country are better.
Mississippi State
Let Josh Hubbard cook. This is not the Mississippi State team we’ve seen in the First Four recently. This version, while still very good defensively, wants to play fairly fast and attack the paint with authority. Josh Hubbard, who leads the Bulldogs with 18.7 points per game, is the type of player that can take a team deep into March.
Gonzaga
Live up to the metrics. Head coach Mark Few has not missed a Sweet 16 since 2014. Most of those teams have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. This year, the Zags are stuck with a No. 8 after terrible losses against Santa Clara, West Virginia, and Oregon State. Still, Gonzaga checks in at No. 9 in overall KenPom ranking and No. 8 in NET, with five players averaging 10 points or more. Forward Graham Ike leads the bunch with 17.1 points per contest. The Zags are a sleeping giant that could go into hibernation in the Round of 64, or win a National Championship.
Louisville
Stay ahead of schedule. Louisville’s rebuild this season has been nothing short of remarkable. The Cardinals went from losing 24 games last year to winning 27 this season, which somehow resulted in an 8-seed despite a final ranking of No. 10 in the AP Poll. Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn finished as an All-ACC Defensive Team selection while averaging 16.2 points per game, which finished second on the team behind Terrence Edwards Jr. If Louisville can get past Creighton, it will play a reeling Auburn team in its backyard in Lexington.
7 Seeds
St. Mary’s
Defense. That’s always been the name of the game for the Gaels. This year is no different, as the Regular Season Champion of the WCC comes in as the No. 8 ranked defense according to KenPom. St. Mary’s doesn’t shoot the ball well from 3-point range (32.3%) or the free throw line (69.4%), making the need for an elite defense even bigger.
Marquette
The supporting cast shows up. Marquette guard Kam Jones is going to be an All-American, likely a first team All-American. He is good enough to win the Golden Eagles a game or two himself. If Shaka Smart’s team wants to get further, the supporting cast needs to provide help. Junior forward Ben Gold may be the key. The Golden Eagles have not lost this season when he provides at least 9 points.
Kansas
Be Kansas. It may sound dumb, but Kansas has simply not been Kansas this season. The Jayhawks were once ranked No. 1 in the country, but bad losses, and rough stretches from stars like Hunter Dickinson, Zeke Mayo, and Dajuan Harris Jr., have caused the Jayhawks to fall under the 5-seed line for the first time this century. Much like Gonzaga, this team is loaded with talent and the ceiling is a National Championship, but the floor is a plane flight by Saturday.
UCLA
Bill Walton. They may no longer be in the ‘Conference of Champions’, but UCLA’s run to the NCAA Tournament has certainly honored the late, great, legend. USC transfer Kobe Johnson is the key for the Bruins. He comes in averaging his lowest points per game total (8.1) since his freshman year, but has the ability to provide another level of scoring to a defensive minded team ranked No. 35 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom.
6 Seeds
Ole Miss
Chris Beard is the most under appreciated coach you’ve heard of. The Rebels leading man has turned a once joke of a program into a solid contender in the SEC that knocked off Alabama, BYU, Louisville, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Colorado State this season. Guard Sean Pedulla and forward Malik Dia lead a group that ranks in the top 31 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom, making Ole Miss a popular second-weekend sleeper. Pedulla struggled throughout the SEC Tournament, which is something the Rebels can ill afford in the big dance.
BYU
Remember Jimmer Fredette? These Cougars have three of him. That would be guards Richie Saunders, Trevin Knell, and Dallin Hall. Knell and Saunders both shoot over 43% from 3-point range, while Hall connects at a 36.7% rate from behind the 3-point line. Other than Florida, these Cougars may be playing the best basketball in the country. BYU won nine straight contests before losing to Houston in the BIG 12 Tournament. That streak included two wins over Iowa State, and road victories against Arizona, West Virginia and Kansas.
Missouri
The vibes are sky high. Much like Louisville, Missouri came into the 2024-2025 season hoping to avoid back-to-back finishes in the basement of its conference. Also like the Cardinals, the Tigers overachieved, to the tune of an NCAA Tournament bid. Head coach Dennis Gates led his squad to 22 wins and a sixth place finish in the SEC this season behind an offense that may be the most aesthetically pleasing in the country. The back court duo of Tamar Bates (13.4 pgg) and Caleb Grill (13.7 ppg) lead a unit that ranks No. 6 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. If you want a fun pick, this may be your team.
Illinois
The Fighting Illini are finally healthy… for now. Illinois may possess the most talented team in the BIG 10. Unfortunately for head coach Brad Underwood, that talent was rarely on the floor together this season. The Illini were still able to win 21 games this season off the back of future NBA lottery pick Kasparas Jakucionis (15 ppg), but cohesion is a major issue for a team that lost to Duke by 43 points.
5 Seeds
Oregon
Dana Altman’s tournament success. The head coach of the Ducks has never lost a first round game since he led Oregon to the big dance in 2013. Altman’s teams have reached the second weekend five out of the eight times they’ve reached the tournament. The three times they failed to get over the hump, the Ducks were seeded below the 6-line. This group is not the most talented version of Oregon we’ve seen, but they do have non-conference wins over Texas A&M and Alabama.
Michigan
History. The last time Michigan won a conference tournament, it made an appearance in the Final Four. The last time head coach Dusty May took a program to the NCAA Tournament after winning the conference tournament, he went to a Final Four. Michigan is far from perfect, but the Wolverines have experience in the front court with centers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf that most other programs don’t posess.
Memphis
Havoc. This is not the same Memphis team Penny Hardaway has led into March during his tenure. This team won enough in the non-conference to warrant a 5-seed, and has an All-American caliber guard in PJ Haggerty. The Tigers beat Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Ole Miss, and Clemson this season, proving they belong in the contender conversation. The Tigers play fast (No. 21 ranked tempo) and turn the opponent over (7.8 steals per game). This squad will cause headaches for any adversary it faces.
Clemson
The Tigers don’t lose often. Clemson has not lost in regulation to an opponent other than Louisville since before Thanksgiving. Star guard Chase Hunter and company lost to Georgia Tech in 3OT after falling to South Carolina and Memphis in overtime. The second best team in the ACC has wins over Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Penn State, and San Fransisco this season.
Top 16
Every squad seeded at the 4-line or higher will be talked about as a National Championship contender throughout the week. They’ve been on your television screens all season, and you really cannot go wrong picking any of them. If you want my detailed thoughts on each, you’ll have to tune into our podcast on Thursday morning 🙂
Good luck to all when filling out those brackets, and I hope you had as much fun reading this blog entry as I did writing it.
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