The metaphor of “the bubble” when it comes to the NCAA Tournament is usually spot on. Every year, we see a surplus of subpar, underachieving yet talented programs create back-and-forth discourse about quality wins outweighing bad losses and vise-versa.

Normally, that conversation centers around ten or so teams that have a decent case to plea to the Selection Committee. The bubble tends to expand as we approach March, before it inevitably bursts, creating a somewhat clearer picture.

That is how things normally go. This year, at least right now, that is not the case. This is our fourth edition of bracketology in 2025 and the bubble has somehow continued to defy physics, shrinking when it should be expanding.

Bubble teams aren’t just sinking off the symmetrical sphere, they are nosediving into a cestpool of misguided NIL funds and pedestrian efficiency.

We’ve had to tweak, re-write, and frustratingly fill our bubble programs throughout the year. We’ll continue to do it until March. But just be warned, the lovable upsets and underdogs stories the best tournament in sports creates may be far and few between this season.

First Four Out: UCF, North Carolina, Arkansas, VCU

• UCF vaulted itself into the bubble conversation by staying afloat in a middling BIG 12 conference. The 13-8 Knights have a pair of very good wins against Texas Tech and Texas A&M, but have gone just 1-6 in ‘Quad 1’ opportunities besides those two. The one win, on the road in Arizona State, could turn into a ‘Quad 2’ victory before too long.
• North Carolina is spiraling. Some say the Auburn Tigers ended the Tar Heels season in Maui, while others think Hubert Davis should be catapulted into the sun.
• A road victory at Kentucky served as a deflating life preserver for an Arkansas team that needs to find a boat, and find one very soon.
• The VCU Rams have quietly trucked their way up the Atlantic 10 standings. While the A-10 is unlikely to receive multiple bids, the electrifying backcourt duo of Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile could force the committees hand if they keep leading VCU to wins.

 

• Last Four In: West Virginia, BYU, San Diego State, Pittsburgh

• Take me home, bumpy roads, to the place, I belong, West Virginia, on the bubble, need to win, away from home. The Mountaineers have lost three of their last four and now face a must-win contest against TCU on the road. A loss would drop West Virginia from the field.
• After starting the season 0-3 in ‘Quad 1’, BYU soaked up a pair of NET-friendly victories last week against Baylor and UCF. The win over the Knights vaulted the Cougars into the field for the first time this season.
• I used up all my San Diego State pun-related creativity last week. The Aztecs earned a pair of mediocre wins to jump from the ‘First Four Out’ to ‘Last Four In’.
• Pittsburgh is in our field, but a brutal home loss against sub-.500 Virginia could make the Panthers stay among the ‘68′ shorter than Chadwick Boseman’s stay in the MCU.

16 seeds: American, Arkansas Little-Rock/Central Connecticut, Bryant, Omaha/Southern

15 seeds: Norfolk State, Akron, Cleveland State, Marist

14 seeds: Arkansas State, High Point, Northern Colorado, Jacksonville State

13 seeds: McNeese, Grand Canyon, North Alabama, Samford

12 seeds: Yale, George Mason, William & Mary, Drake

11 seeds: UC Irvine, West Virginia/Pittsburgh, BYU/San Diego State, Georgia

10 seeds: Missouri, Utah State, Texas, Gonzaga

9 seeds: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Louisville, Vanderbilt

8 seeds: Clemson, New Mexico, St. Mary’s, Nebraska

7 seeds: UCLA, Baylor, Arizona, Creighton

6 seeds: Michigan, Maryland, UConn, Ole Miss

5 seeds: Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Memphis, Texas Tech

4 seeds: St. John’s, Oregon, Kentucky, Illinois

3 seeds: Purdue, Kansas, Texas A&M, Michigan State

2 seeds: (5) Houston, (6) Marquette, (7) Iowa State, (8) Florida

1 seeds: (1) Auburn, (2) Duke, (3), Alabama , (4) Tennessee

 

Projected Major conference champions: Michigan State, Iowa State, Marquette, Auburn, Duke, New Mexico