The excerpt below was taken from Wednesday’s weekly bracketology. Updates will be made to the Bubble and bracket every day until selection Sunday. This is March!

 

We’ve made it. This entry of bracketology will be our last of the season (we’ll still have our final bubble on the live show on Selection Sunday) and what a ride it has been.

Every college basketball season has a theme or defining trait. 2022 was the year North Carolina spoiled Coach K’s retirement tour. 2011 was the year of Kemba Walker. 2018 was the year Villanova became a ‘Blue Blood’. 2020 was the COVID Year, 2024 was the year Kyle Neptune revoked Villanova’s ‘Blue Blood’ status, and 2025 was the year of dominant No. 1 seeds.

2026, to the dismay of Mermaid Man and Barnacle Boy, is the year of the ‘Dirty Bubble’.

No matter what metric you look at, this year’s list of bubble teams is simply not good. Auburn and its 16-15 record is still in our field as of today. The sad reality is the Tigers really should be. Not because they deserve to go dancing. Not because their resume exudes enough confidence they can make a deep run in March, but because the teams behind them are so awful.

Think about it this way. Auburn is 17*-15 overall. Six of those 16 victories have come against teams in the NCAA Tournament, with a chance for seven if No. 1 seed in the SWAC Bethune-Cookman wins its conference tournament. The Tigers have a combined record of 7-14 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Only two of those seven wins were true road games. Not great, right?

March 12 Update- Auburn won big vs. Mississippi State to open the SEC Tournament. This win does nothing to improve the Tigers standing, but keeps them in the field, for now.

Now let’s look at some other bubble teams.

Indiana – 18-14* overall, 5-13 in Quadrants 1 and 2. One of those wins (@UCLA) was a true road game. Three of their 18 victories have come against tournament teams. *March 12 Update – Indiana was routed its first BIG 10 Tournament game to Northwestern. The Hoosiers will not go dancing.

New Mexico – 22-9 overall, 8-7 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Four of those wins have been on the road. Looks great right? Well, that’s the problem with the Mountain West. Of the Lobos 22 victories, only two have come against possible tournament teams (Santa Clara, VCU). Depending on bid stealers, that number has the chance to be a big fat bagel on Selection Sunday.  

San Diego State – 20-10 overall, 7-7 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Three true road wins. ONE of the 22 total wins (Utah State) against a tournament team.

Virginia Tech – 19-14* overall, 8-12 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Three true road wins. Two of the 19 wins against teams in the field, with the possibility for three if either Saint Joe’s or George Mason can snag a bid from the Atlantic 10 Tournament. *March 12 Update – The Hokies suffered an overtime defeat to Wake Forest in their first ACC Tournament game. Virginia Tech is not dead, but far from alive and well.

I understand people will still point to the overall record and say Auburn should be nowhere close to the NCAA Tournament, and that is fair. But here’s the thing, the selection committee has proven again and again they want programs to prove they can beat the elite teams in the field to make for a more intriguing March.

Auburn did that to a fault this season by massively overestimating its talent and competitiveness as a basketball team. Most year’s that would be a death sentence, but this year…. it may save the Tigers from the NIT.

First Four Out: New Mexico, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Oklahoma

• New Mexico’s door to the NCAA Tournament is the widest of the bubble teams. With 22 wins on the season, a quarterfinal win and semifinal victory over fellow bubble program San Diego State could be enough to get the Lobos dancing.
• San Diego State likely needs to win the Mountain West to receive a bid, but could sneak in with a Quad 2 victory over Colorado State and Quad 1 win over New Mexico, even with a loss in the title game.
• Seton Hall’s placement on the bubble is much more an indication of failures of others than it is the Pirates’ success. Star guard Bud Clark and company still sit outside of the top 50 in NET, but a win over Creighton and St. John’s could force Shaheen Holloway’s team back into the conversation.
• Like Seton Hall, Oklahoma is not in the conversation as of right now. The Sooners simply have the advantage of opportunity over more deserving programs like Indiana, Virginia Tech, and Cal that have concluded their seasons. The SEC Tournament hasn’t reached it’s quarterfinal round, giving OU four more Quad 1 opportunities. The dream would die with a loss to Texas A&M on Thursday.

 

• Last Four In: Auburn, SMU, Texas, VCU

• Somehow, someway, the Auburn Tigers are still alive. Wednesday’s win over Mississippi State did virtually nothing to improve the resume, but it did open up a squeaky clean window of opportunity for Steven Pearl’s squad. A victory over Tennessee keeps the Tigers in the field, barring bid stealers. A pair of wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt would jump Auburn ahead of SMU. Three or more wins? Auburn is all-but a lock to receive an NCAA Tournament bid.
• SMU ended it’s season losing five of its final six games. The Mustangs have a good enough overall body of work, but they left the door wide open for bid stealers and the bubble teams in the SEC.
• Texas lost its SEC Tournament opener to Ole Miss and has now lost five of six games after seemingly securing their place in the NCAA Tournament with a five game win streak before that. The Longhorns are still safer than SMU.
• VCU needs to avoid a bad loss in the Atlantic 10 quarters to lock up a bid. The Rams are good enough to win the tournament and would avoid Dayton by doing so. If that were the case, a team like Santa Clara, UCF, or Ohio State may find itself in the First Four.

16 seeds: Siena*, Long Island*/Howard*, Lehigh*, Bethune-Cookman*/Idaho*

15 seeds: Queens*, Furman*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*

14 seeds: UC Irvine*, Wright State*, Yale*, Troy*

13 seeds: North Dakota State*, Cal Baptist*, Hofstra*, McNeese*

12 seeds: Sam Houston*, Northern Iowa*, Akron*, High Point*

11 seeds: Santa Clara, USF*, Texas/VCU, Auburn/SMU

10 seeds: NC State, Ohio State, TCU, UCF

9 seeds: Missouri, St. Mary’s, UCLA, Miami (OH)

8 seeds: Clemson, Utah State*, Georgia, Texas A&M

7 seeds: Iowa, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Villanova

6 seeds: Tennessee, BYU, Louisville, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Alabama, North Carolina, St. John’s, Arkansas

4 seeds: Purdue, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Nebraska

3 seeds: Illinois, Texas Tech, Gonzaga*, Virginia

2 seeds: UConn *(5) , Iowa State* (6), Houston (7), Michigan State (8)

1 seeds: Duke* (1) , Arizona* (2), Michigan* (3) , Florida* (4)

 

* conference champion