We’ve made it. This entry of bracketology will be our last of the season (we’ll still have our final bubble on the live show on Selection Sunday) and what a ride it has been.

Every college basketball season has a theme or defining trait. 2022 was the year North Carolina spoiled Coach K’s retirement tour. 2011 was the year of Kemba Walker. 2018 was the year Villanova became a ‘Blue Blood’. 2020 was the COVID Year, 2024 was the year Kyle Neptune revoked Villanova’s ‘Blue Blood’ status, and 2025 was the year of dominant No. 1 seeds.

2026, to the dismay of Mermaid Man and Barnacle Boy, is the year of the ‘Dirty Bubble’.

No matter what metric you look at, this year’s list of bubble teams is simply not good. Auburn and its 16-15 record is still in our field as of today. The sad reality is the Tigers really should be. Not because they deserve to go dancing. Not because their resume exudes enough confidence they can make a deep run in March, but because the teams behind them are so awful.

Think about it this way. Auburn is 16-15 overall. Six of those 16 victories have come against teams in the NCAA Tournament, with a chance for seven if No. 1 seed in the SWAC Bethune-Cookman wins its conference tournament. The Tigers have a combined record of 7-14 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Only two of those seven wins were true road games. Not great, right?

Now let’s look at some other bubble teams.

Indiana – 18-13 overall, 5-13 in Quadrants 1 and 2. One of those wins (@UCLA) was a true road game. Three of their 18 victories have come against tournament teams.

New Mexico – 22-9 overall, 8-7 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Four of those wins have been on the road. Looks great right? Well, that’s the problem with the Mountain West. Of the Lobos 22 victories, only two have come against possible tournament teams (Santa Clara, VCU). Depending on bid stealers, that number has the chance to be a big fat bagel on Selection Sunday.

San Diego State – 20-10 overall, 7-7 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Three true road wins. ONE of the 22 total wins (Utah State) against a tournament team.

Virginia Tech – 19-13 overall, 8-12 in Quadrants 1 and 2. Three true road wins. Two of the 19 wins against teams in the field, with the possibility for three if either Saint Joe’s or George Mason can snag a bid from the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

I understand people will still point to the overall record and say Auburn should be nowhere close to the NCAA Tournament, and that is fair. But here’s the thing, the selection committee has proven again and again they want programs to prove they can beat the elite teams in the field to make for a more intriguing March.

Auburn did that to a fault this season by massively overestimating its talent and competitiveness as a basketball team. Most year’s that would be a death sentence, but this year…. it may save the Tigers from the NIT.

First Four Out: New Mexico, Indiana, Virginia Tech, San Diego State

• New Mexico will likely need a long run in the Mountain West Tournament to receive a bid to the dance. Utah State’s fall down the NET rankings leaves the door open, but also puts a damper on the difficulty the entire body of work so far.
• Indiana needed a win over Ohio State to keep the dream alive. Now, even a run to the BIG 10 Championship might not be enough.
• The door is open for Virginia Tech to make a run in the ACC Tournament. The Hokies start with a game they should win against Wake Forest, followed by a matchup with a struggling Clemson squad and a UNC team that lost star Caleb Wilson for the season. If Virginia Tech can win those three, that’s an extra pair of Quad 1 victories and wins against tournament teams that could be enough to put the resume over the top. Update – They lost to Wake Forest (lol)
• San Diego State sucks. CBS still has financial ties to the conference, and as long as Turner is running the show come March, the Aztecs will ALWAYS be around.

 

• Last Four In: Auburn, SMU, Ohio State, VCU

• Auburn was run out of the gym in the IBOB to end the regular season. Somehow, someway, the Tigers should be in the NCAA Tournament field with victories over Mississippi State and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. A third win over Vanderbilt would probably be enough to lock the Tigers in.
• SMU finds itself on the bubble after a rough stretch to end the season and Santa Clara’s victory over Saint Mary’s in the WCC Tournament. The Mustangs will be in unless we see bid stealers in the A-10, MAC, and Mountain West. Even then, they, along with Ohio State, feel like the safest programs.
• Ohio State beat Indiana in the final game of the regular season to secure it’s spot in the field.
• LET VCU DANCE. PLEASE!

16 seeds: Sienna*, Long Island*/Howard*, Lehigh*, Bethune-Cookman*/Montana*

15 seeds: Queens*, East Tennessee State*, UT Martin*, UMBC*

14 seeds: UC Irvine*, Wright State*, Yale*, Troy*

13 seeds: North Dakota State*, Cal Baptist*, Hofstra*, High Point*

12 seeds: Liberty*, Northern Iowa*, Akron*, Stephen F. Austin*

11 seeds: Santa Clara, USF*, SMU/VCU, Auburn/Ohio State

10 seeds: NC State, Texas, TCU, UCF

9 seeds: Missouri, St. Mary’s, UCLA, Miami (OH)

8 seeds: Clemson, Utah State*, Georgia, Texas A&M

7 seeds: Iowa, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Villanova

6 seeds: Tennessee, BYU, Louisville, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Alabama, North Carolina, St. John’s, Arkansas

4 seeds: Purdue, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Nebraska

3 seeds: Illinois, Texas Tech, Gonzaga*, Virginia

2 seeds: UConn *(5) , Iowa State* (6), Houston (7), Michigan State (8)

1 seeds: Duke* (1) , Arizona* (2), Michigan* (3) , Florida* (4)

 

* conference champion