Could 2024 be the year of the Mountain West?

If you are a college basketball fan of any kind, you are probably aware of the “ick” surrounding the Mountain West Conference in March. The bad reputation is not only fair but fairly earned, as the MWC as a whole is 27-59 in March Madness play.

That mark looks even worse after taking into account San Diego State went on a 5-1 tear in last year’s National Runner-up run. The Aztecs were the first Mountain West team to break into the National semifinals and capture a Final Four win, possibly igniting a conference that had been under scrutiny as recently as a year prior, when the four teams to make the field (Wyoming, Colorado State, Boise State, and San Diego State) were all eliminated in the first round.

Now we fast forward to February 2024. Five, possibly six, Mountain West programs are going to make the “Field of 68” in less than a month. That number of bids (whether it is five or six) is certain to be more or as many as the ACC, AAC, Big East, PAC 12, and Big 10. That is absurd for a conference known frankly as “frauds”.

The bids won’t only be fair but they’ll be fairly earned for a conference on the rise. With the PAC 12 ceasing to exist next season, the Mountain West is ready to take over as the premier conference west of the Alamo.

With all those great things being said, the conference still has a terrible March reputation, even with San Diego State’s success last season.

So can another team make a run at the Final Four? Let’s do some digging.

Nevada

Projected Seed: First Four Out

Second Weekend Chances: 14%

Final Four Chances: +5000

Eric Musselman and the Martin Twins were in many ways the metaphorical wolves that led the pack of Mountain West teams to relevancy. Unfortunately for Nevada, Musselman left for greener and porkier pastures and the Martin twins are now in the NBA.

Still, Nevada has been a decent program since the trio departed in large part to seniors Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear. The duo average just over 32 points per contest this year and are the clear leaders of the team.

The problem is the Wolf Pack doesn’t get much production from anyone beyond them. Forward Nick Davidson is solid, but his inability to space the floor is going to be a liability come March. It also doesn’t help that players not named Jarod Lucas are shooting right under 32% from 3-point range.

Nevada is talented enough to win a first four game and a first round game with the right matchup. The second weekend doesn’t look very likely though. The conference would gladly take a 2-1 record from the Wolf Pack.

Boise State

Projected Seed: 11

Second Weekend Chances: 23%

Final Four Chances: +5000

We have the Boise State as one of our final four byes in the latest bracketology. The Broncos certainly have a chance to improve on that, but it’s most likely we see them as an underdog in the first round.

That being said, I could see them beating a 6 or 7 seed on their way into the round of 32. Lack of starpower probably limits Boise State to the first weekend however.

We’ll see if star forward Tyson Degenhart and his 16.4 points per game prove me wrong.

Utah State

Projected Seed: 9

Second Weekend Chances: 25%

Final Four Chances: +4000

Utah State has the best player in the conference in junior forward Grant Osobor. They have three guards averaging over 10 points per game, and they are in first place in the Mountain West.

The Aggies don’t have any good non-conference victories though, and that makes me wary of them carrying on the ways of the old Mountain West instead of the new. A 32.5% mark from 3-point range is also concerning.

New Mexico

Projected Seed: 8

Second Weekend Chances: 26%

Final Four Chances: +3000

New Mexico has one of the best chances to make a run at the final four in my opinion. The issue is they might play too well and end up in an 8/9 first round game, meaning they would have to face a No. 1 seed with a Sweet 16 spot on the line.

Head coach Richard Pitino leads a trio of fantastic guards in Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, and Jamal Mashburn Jr. All three average well over 15 points per game. That bodes extremely well in a tournament so reliant on guard play.

The lobos don’t defend a lick, but they play physical, high-tempo basketball that could offset their lack of defensive talent. If the guards get hot, this team COULD make a run. Most likely they end up with a 1-1 record in the Big Dance though.

Colorado State

Projected Seed: 6

Second Weekend Chances: 40%

Final Four Chances: +4000

Alright ladies and gentlemen. If you are looking for a Mountain West team to make another run, these are the guys.

Colorado State is going into March under-seeded because of road struggles in conference play. The good news for the Rams is true road games don’t exist in March, and they probably won’t have to play a Mountain West opponent until a hypothetical Sweet 16.

The Rams are 8-5 in a great conference and have one of the better non-conference resume’s in all of the country. CSU started off its season by defeating likely Conference USA Champion Louisiana Tech then rattled off wins against Colorado, Creighton, Washington, Boston College, and lost by a single possession to WCC opponent St. Mary’s.

The best part about the Rams? Leading scorer Isiah Stevens shoots at a ridiculous 46% clip from 3-point range. Guard Nique Clifford and forward Patrick Cartier also shoot over 40% from deep.

CSU is a second weekend team at least.

San Diego State

Projected Seed: 5

Second Weekend Chances: 53%

Final Four Chances: +1800

There isn’t much I can write here that you don’t already know. San Diego State made it to the National Championship game last year. The 2024 team returns every starter besides Keshad Johnson who transferred to Arizona.

The Aztecs have non-conference wins over Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. Forward Jaedon LeDee averages over 20 points per game. Head coach Brian Dutcher still gets maximum effort from his team every night. San Diego State has every opportunity to make another run.

I just believe it’s Colorado State’s turn. SDSU has a 2-1 tournament.

To conclude, most of the bids out of the Mountain West have a chance to at least bust some brackets. The same couldn’t be said a few years ago.

In the age of the PAC 12’s death, its nice to know the Mountain West has finally arrived.