Last night on the podcast Jack and I went back and forth to no avail on the validity of Miami (OH)’s 31-1 resume.

We were just the most recent in a long long of talking heads questioning whether the RedHawks near-perfect, 30-win record against frankly terrible competition is more worthy of an NCAA Tournament selection than an Auburn, Texas, or Indiana team that played barely over .500 basketball, albeit with some outstanding wins, against the best competition possible.

With quite possibly the worst bubble since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, the question of over-performing mid major vs under-performing high major has never been more prevalent. It’s rightfully been the debate on everyone’s mind since Miami (OH) suffered its first loss to begin the MAC Tournament.

But here is something no one has thought about – What happens if that debate shifts towards a pair of small programs.

That is where Twitter finger torches and pitch forks will come out.

Before we get into the weeds. Here is our current bubble, which currently does not include Miami or Akron, both of which we’ve had in our bracket since early February (no big deal).

L4 In: SMU, VCU, Texas, New Mexico

F4 OUT: Auburn, San Diego State, Oklahoma, Seton Hall.

Three of those programs are considered mid-majors, while two (Oklahoma, Seton Hall) are still alive in their conference tournaments.

Now let’s say Dayton wins the Atlantic 10 by upsetting VCU in the championship game. Let’s also say San Diego State defeats New Mexico and conference regular season champion Utah State to win the Mountain West Tournament.

All of a sudden, our bubble is shrinking. A last ‘Last Four In’ has become a ‘Last Two In’ likely consisting of SMU and Texas. Now what if Seton Hall wins the Big East? Shaheen Holloway has shocked the world before…

Now we’re stuck with one at-large bid between SMU, VCU, New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma.

Or are we?

VCU and New Mexico may be SOL despite fantastic seasons in a mid-major conference, but do they have to be? VCU has won 27 games. Six of those came in the first two Quadrants. New Mexico currently has 23 wins of their own, including a victory over VCU and eight total in Quads 1 and 2.

The Rams went 11-0 in Quad 4 and 7-0 in Quad 3. The Lobos won all nine of their Quadrant 4 games.

Does a 31-1 season from Miami (OH) featuring zero victories over Quad 1 competition and a loss in Quad 4 save them from bid stealers. More importantly, does it save them from other mid-major candidates with better NET rankings and wins like VCU or New Mexico?

What would be a worse precedent to set? Leaving out a 31-win mid-major or leaving out a mid 20’s win mid-major that showed it can slay Goliath?

It’s a fascinating hypothetical that the committee is likely dreading.

First Four Out: Auburn, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Oklahoma

• Auburn blew yet another lead, this time against Tennessee, to suffer yet another brutal loss. This latest collapse couldn’t have come at a worse time. Steven Pearl’s team now needs to pray for two things. No more bid stealers (or none at all), and the committee’s grace.
• San Diego State will pass Auburn as the last team out with a win over New Mexico in the Mountain West semis. The Aztecs still can earn an automatic bid with two more wins.
• Seton Hall can earn a much-needed Quad 1A victory with an upset of St. John’s in the BIG East Tournament. It’s likely still not enough for at-large consideration, but it would give the Pirates a chance. Of course, two more wins in the BIG East Tournament would get them in.
• Oklahoma picked up a huge Quadrant 1 win over Texas A&M on Thursday. A run to the SEC Championship may be enough with the state of this bubble.

• Last Four In: SMU, VCU, Texas, New Mexico

• New Mexico is will secure it’s spot as our last team in with a win over San Diego State in the Mountain West semis.
• SMU ended it’s season losing five of its final six games. The Mustangs have a good enough overall body of work, but they left the door wide open for bid stealers and the bubble teams in the SEC.
• Texas lost its SEC Tournament opener to Ole Miss and has now lost five of six games after seemingly securing their place in the NCAA Tournament with a five game win streak before that. The Longhorns are still safer than SMU.
• VCU needs to avoid a bad loss in the Atlantic 10 quarters to lock up a bid. The Rams are good enough to win the tournament and would avoid Dayton by doing so. If that were the case, a team like Santa Clara, UCF, or Miami (OH) may find itself in the First Four.

16 seeds: Siena*, Long Island*/Howard*, Lehigh*, Bethune-Cookman*/Idaho*

15 seeds: Queens*, Furman*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*

14 seeds: UC Irvine*, Wright State*, LA Tech*, Troy*

13 seeds: North Dakota State*, Cal Baptist*, Hofstra*, Yale*

12 seeds: McNeese*, Northern Iowa*, Akron*, High Point*

11 seeds: Santa Clara, USF*, Texas/VCU, New Mexico/SMU

10 seeds: NC State, Miami (OH), TCU, UCF

9 seeds: Missouri, St. Mary’s, UCLA, Ohio State

8 seeds: Clemson, Utah State*, Georgia, Texas A&M

7 seeds: Iowa, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Villanova

6 seeds: Tennessee, BYU, Louisville, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Alabama, North Carolina, St. John’s, Arkansas

4 seeds: Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Nebraska

3 seeds: Illinois, Purdue, Gonzaga*, Virginia

2 seeds: UConn *(5) , Iowa State* (6), Houston (7), Michigan State (8)

1 seeds: Duke* (1) , Arizona* (2), Michigan* (3) , Florida* (4)

*conference champion